“Zero-Sum Views and Support for Redistribution Across Borders”

Abstract: This paper provides causal evidence on how zero-sum framing affects support for global redistribution and economic openness. In a preregistered survey experiment with a large UK sample, we show that a zero-sum prime about general social and economic interactions, without reference to redistribution, reduces revealed support for international redistribution by lowering the probability of donating to an international anti-poverty NGO. Effects on stated support for global redistribution, globalization, and migration are directionally similar but not distinguishable from zero. These experimental results contrast with the positive cross-sectional association between zero-sum beliefs and stated support for redistribution in our data and in prior work, cautioning against a causal interpretation of observational gradients. In an additional, independently randomized treatment, information about respondents’ position in the global income distribution offsets the donation response to the zero-sum prime. The results speak to how rising nationalist and protectionist rhetoric in high-income countries, by making zero-sum narratives salient, may shape economic and policy preferences in the population.

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